Identifying potential breakthrough publications using refined citation analyses: Three related explorative approaches

The article presents three advanced citation-based methods used to detect potential breakthrough papers among very highly cited papers. We approach the detection of such papers from three different perspectives in order to provide different typologies of breakthrough papers. In all three cases we use the classification of scientific publications developed at CWTS based on direct citation relationships. This classification establishes clusters of papers at three levels of aggregation. Papers are clustered based on their similar citation orientations and it is assumed that they are focused on similar research interests. We use the clustering as the context for detecting potential breakthrough papers. We utilize the Characteristics Scores and Scales (CSS) approach to partition citation distributions and implement a specific filtering algorithm to sort out potential highly-cited 'followers', papers not considered breakthroughs in themselves. After invoking thresholds and filtering, three methods are explored: A very exclusive one where only the highest cited paper in a micro-cluster is considered as a potential breakthrough paper (M1); as well as two conceptually different methods, one that detects potential breakthrough papers among the two percent highest cited papers according to CSS (M2a), and finally a more restrictive version where, in addition to the CSS two percent filter, knowledge diffusion is also taken in as an extra parameter (M2b). The advance citation-based methods are explored and evaluated using specifically validated publication sets linked to different Danish funding instruments including centres of excellence.